Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Best and worst case scenarios...

I just read Rumor Queen's post from yesterday with her spreadsheets on what she predicts for the future. I'm sure most of you have already checked it out and have your best and worst case scenario in mind.

For friends and family who don't frequent the Queen's site, here's what it boils down to for us. The wait depends on how many referrals China issues each month. Our absolute best case scenario (based on 15 days referred each month) would be a referral in May '08 (27 month total wait) and the worst case scenario (based on 5 days referred each month) would be a referral in Jan '09 (35 month total wait).

The best case scenario is only a dream at this point, as there is absolutely no indication that monthly referrals will pick up that much. It's actually been just the opposite. Although I do think they will end up fluctuating between 5 days per month and 8 days per month, over the next 8 months or so. This would put us at about November, which I think might be pretty realistic. This amounts to a 33 month total wait...a mere 25 months longer than we expected back in August '05 when we naively submitted our adoption application.

Now if the Olympics drastically effect the monthly referrals, although the CCAA has made no formal announcements, our wait could possibly extend past the Jan '09 worst case scenario. It's actually anyone's guess at this point. What do other February/March LID'ers think?

11 comments:

Shelley said...

That just blows my mind. It makes me so sad that our daughters' birth country has policies that put so many loving parents in excrutiating pain, and deprive their own children of wonderful homes. I often wonder how they can sleep with themselves at night.

I think your calculation sounds right. But then we're talking about a country whose decisions defy logic.

OziMum said...

I'm going with the 5 day a month prediction. And HOPING (but not counting on) continuous referrals throughout the Olympic period.

I can't see why they can't continue to refer through the Olympic period, even if you consulate is in Beijing... travel just be put on hold, til the crowds die down?

Even the 7 day per month prediction, would be nice.

OH MY #6 said...

Nice RQ image. I love that. All I can say is that I HOPE THEY GET MOVING!!

Lea

Carol said...

I believe in my heart that it will pick up....not by leaps and bounds, but some......they are down to 300 dossiers for Dec 2007...so she says...that was worldwide.....that just shocked me to the core........only 300 people in the world applying for China! I don't think they wanted to drop that much!

Stephe said...

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:) Stephe

Kayce said...

I'm thinking you're right, as hard as it is to say. I'm still dreaming of a magical speed up though!

Doris & Dan said...

No idea any more. After a few more months, we may have a better idea of the situation but I am sticking with the tagline "One more year".

Keep smilin!

Lisa and Tate said...

Whatever I think or wonder does not change the way China does things... I will just hope for the best scenario, try to stay positive and happy during this wait.

Christie said...

Well, you know me - sour puss Sue - so I'm not expecting a referral until sometime in '09...

I just don't think they can truly pull it off before then.

Consider this: My good friend has a 12/20/05 LID. She missed the cutoff by one day. She will now get her referral in Feb. and will probably not travel until April/May. A quarter of the way through the year - almost half. I'm not LID until March 29th - I have no hope of traveling in '08 whatsoever. Save a miracle...

That's my $.02

Hugs,
cb

i-Con said...

Being at the very end of Feb, right now I'm thinking I may still get referral in the very end of 08 and travel in 09.

Sigh...closer none the less though.

Catherine said...

I've decided to go with the 5 days per month case but sadly I feel even that may be optimistic. :o(

Glad to be sharing this long wait with wonderful friends like you!